NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament: The Final Four In Arlington, Texas – What Seeds May Say And Fun May Be

Only four remain.

Sixty-eight of the best men’s teams in college basketball started the trek to the national championship on March 18, 2014.

Only four remain, the Final Four: the Florida Gators (the #1 seed from the South); the Wisconsin Badgers (the #2 seed from the West); the Connecticut Huskies (the #7 seed in the East); and finally the Kentucky Wildcats (the #8 seed from the Midwest).

From the South, the West, the East and the Midwest, the best in the hoops of college athletics have bit, dug, barked and clawed their way to Arlington, Texas. And, it is for all a way away to fare and play.

For the Gators from Gainesville, Florida, the distance to the rolling prairies of Texas is 899 miles. The Badgers have to travel 828 miles from Madison, Wisconsin on the beautiful, if sometimes frozen, shores of Lake Mendota. For the bouncing Huskies, the mush from Storrs, Connecticut to the Iditarod of B-ball is the farthest, 1,498 miles. And, from the blue grass of Lexington, Kentucky, the Wildcats will dig in and ride the back of a speeding aircraft for 798 wind-swept miles.

Our finalists average a healthy one thousand (1,000) miles to Arlington, Texas and a place on the floor of the modern Taj Mahal of sporting achievement.

A footnote: Arlington is a cozy college community situated between Dallas and Fort Worth that had space for a large parking lot, sky for a spacious dome, and incentives to attract Cowboys, Rangers and my wife – she offices in site of the towering edifices of electric hoopla.

We are off and scuttling, jumping, bounding and leaping to Arlington.

But, before we and you and the entire world do, some observations on the statistics.

This is a “High-Seed Final Four,” an “HSFF.” Let’s do the math: We have Florida at #1, Wisconsin at #2, Connecticut at #7 and Kentucky at #8. Add the seed numbers up and you get “18.” That is a very high HSFF.

In the past 35 years, from 1979 to now and counting now, there have been only 6 Final Fours where the seeds add to 18 or above (18 this year, 18 last year, 26 in 2011, 20 in 2006, 22 in 2000, and 21 in 1980). 6 of 35 is 17%. We have a very unusual Final Four, a four with a low probability of occurrence. But, it has occurred. So, let’s look a little closer at the numbers.

In the past five High-Seed Final Four’s, or HSFF’s, the #1 seeds have won 2 out of 5 times. That is a 40% chance of success for the #1 seed. But, in the past 35 years since 1979, the #1 seeds have won 20 of 35 times, which is a 60% success rate. This tells us that the #1 seed has won fewer times in a High-Seed year than a normal year. And, this may say that Florida at #1 should be especially wary this year.

Now, a very interesting statistic: For the last 35 years, no seed greater than 3 has won in a High-Seed year. Connecticut and Kentucky, this is your sign to: “Beware!”

One final “stat,” in a High-Seed year, the #2 or #3 seed has won 60% of the time. This winning percentage would seem to favor #2 this year. So, Wisconsin, watch and be sure of your steps. Do not become overconfident. The numbers may be with you, but will your stride tell?

All things are new at the Final Four.

Arlington, the rolling prairies and constructed beacons beckon.

The doormat to the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex is out and extended in welcome.

The world awaits at its tellies, handhelds and internet terminals.

Should we focus too on numbers?

Fix our sight on the games?

Numbers are great.

But fun is fun.

Enjoy.

Grandpa Jim